Who Will Win the Regular Season Title?
Utah Valley controls its own destiny; GCU needs a bit of help
WAC Vegas begins in a little over three weeks.
Yes, you read that correctly. The men’s and women’s basketball tournament in the Western Athletic Conference starts in a little over three weeks.
Crazy that the regular season is very nearly over.
And it is crazy to think that the race for the WAC regular season title is just heating up.
At least on the men’s side.
On the women’s side, GCU is running away with its first-ever outright regular season title. The Lopes hold the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 and 10 of the 11 wins in league play have been by double figures.
Dominant might not even be the word for Molly Miller’s crew in 2024-25.
A win on Saturday at CBU coupled with a UT Arlington loss at Tarleton State on Saturday would clinch no worse than a share of the regular season title for the Lopes.
So, we will focus our efforts on the men’s race, which is extremely intriguing.
The tiebreaker method creates even more intrigue.
Utah Valley being picked to finish fifth in the preseason polls voted on by the coaches is also intriguing.
2024-25 being the final season in the WAC for GCU is also intriguing.
So, let’s break down this race for the regular season title and the top seed at WAC Vegas in three weeks.
For Utah Valley
It is pretty simple for the league leaders.
Win Out.
Sitting at 10-1, a game ahead of GCU, the Wolverines simply have to win out to secure their second outright regular season title in three years.
Now, simply might not be the word facing the Wolverines down the stretch.
First, Utah Valley has to go to Utah Tech on Thursday, Feb. 20.
In the lone game of the series at Burns Arena in 2023-24, Jon Judkins team held Utah Valley to 53 points in a 65-53 win over the Wolverines.
In two of the last three meetings at Burns Arena, Utah Valley has returned to Orem with a loss.
“A win is a win,” Utah Valley head coach Todd Phillips said after Saturday’s close win at rival Southern Utah. “Every game is going to be like that down the stretch.”
Following the trip down I-15, the Wolverines host Seattle U on Feb. 22. Utah Valley then gets a week off to prepare for the final home game of the season when the Wolverines host Southern Utah on March. 1.
The following week, to round out WAC play, Utah Valley finishes with the brutal West Texas two-step at ACU and at Tarleton State.
Just ask GCU, who Utah Valley is trying to hold off in this race, how difficult the West Texas road trip is…it almost cost the Lopes the outright regular season championship a season ago.
Fortunately, for GCU, Utah Valley helped the Lopes out a bit when the Wolverines knocked off Tarleton State at Wisdom Gym two weeks later.
The homestretch for the Wolverines is not easy. Three of the final five games are away from Orem, and two of those games are in West Texas.
Let’s put it this way…if Utah Valley does win out, and wins the regular season crown, the Wolverines will have EARNED it.
For GCU
The Lopes are in an interesting situation that many did not see them falling into coming into 2024-25.
GCU needs some help in its quest to repeat as the WAC regular-season champion.
Sitting at 9-2, GCU is a game behind Utah Valley for the top spot with five games to play.
So, GCU needs a bit of help. The Lopes need Utah Tech, Seattle U, Southern Utah, ACU, or Tarleton State to beat Utah Valley. Along with that, the Lopes have to win out, too.
GCU has the easier schedule of the two down the stretch, hosting CBU on Feb. 22, UT Arlington on Feb. 27, at Seattle U on March 1, Utah Tech on March 6, and at ACU on March 8.
So, for GCU, the path is win out, get some help from other teams in the WAC, hope Utah Valley stumbles, and hang a new banner.
Here is the kicker, too.
And many of you reading this article will note my disdain for the tiebreaker in the instance that GCU and Utah Valley share the WAC regular season title.
If you weren’t following along on Sunday afternoon, the tiebreaker was posted on X.
The seeding system, which many thought was voted out by the school presidents, comes back into play.
If GCU and Utah Valley share the WAC regular season title, the tiebreaker will come down to the seeding system.
If the Lopes and Wolverines tie, GCU would get the 1-seed simply based off the metrics.
Currently, GCU is at 98 in KenPom and 97 in the NET. Utah Valley is at 126 in KenPom and 119 in NET.
If GCU wins out, and Utah Valley stumbles just once, the Lopes would rate higher in the seeding system.
Again, it’s quite interesting that games in November and December could dictate who gets the top seed in the conference tournament.
It is something that many around the WAC disagree with, especially in a season where everyone plays each other an equal amount of times.
Either way, the next three weeks are gonna be fun to follow.
Can Todd Phillips and the Wolverines get the job done?
Can GCU get help from other teams in the WAC?
One thing to note…Utah Valley could clinch one of the top 2 seeds this week.
If the Wolverines beat Utah Tech, and GCU beats CBU, the Wolverines would clinch one of the top 2 seeds.