Can Anyone Beat GCU? Overachievers, Underachievers and More in Mailbag
GCU's world, second best team, and more in the Monday Mailbag
Good morning, WAC Hoops Nation and everyone else that follows our work and supports what we do for men’s and women’s basketball in the Western Athletic Conference.
It is the third week of January and I am stoked. On Wednesday, I take my first-ever trip to McAllen/Edinburg to check out UTRGV. Yep, hopefully getting out of the cold and snow for a few days to explore South Texas a bit.
South Padre Island is calling my name and I am looking forward to eating some delicious food, all of which will be documented.
UTRGV Fieldhouse is the last gym around the WAC that I have to visit. Now, I can write up a breakdown of each gym and rank them from 1 to 11. I know it won’t make some people happy. But, it is always fun to do, anyway.
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Now, to the Monday Mailbag.
There were some great questions. Most revolved around the GCU men’s basketball team. Rightly so, I suppose. The Lopes are running away with the WAC regular season crown and are setting themselves up for an at-large berth if they don’t win the WAC Tournament.
So, the hype is earned.
Team Most Capable of Upsetting GCU in the Tournament
Hmmm, if we are being honest, at this point, nobody. GCU has the size, the experience, and the big guards who can take over a game at any time. Not many other teams in the WAC have that.
I will go out on a limb and say maybe SFA. That is only because of their depth and experience. But, even then, at the pace they play, it is right up GCU’s alley as the Lopes can run with Ray Harrison, Tyon Grant-Foster, and Collin Moore among others.
Let’s put it this way, GCU shoots the lights out at Orleans Arena. They shot nearly 60 percent from 3-point land in last year’s run to the tournament title.
And now, they have even better shooters and bigger guards.
I will lean SFA…maybe Seattle U. But, both teams would have to catch GCU on an off night in order for that to happen.
Overachievers and Underachievers After 6 WAC Games
This is a pretty easy question to answer.
Over-performing is Utah Tech. And it really isn’t close. 3-2 in WAC play (Trailblazers had this past Saturday off). Have wins over Utah Valley, California Baptist, and SFA. The losses were at Seattle U and vs. GCU.
Jon Judkins’ team was not expected to be in the mix with all that they lost in the offseason. Just two key returners, one starter, and a bevy of JUCO transfers with a few Division I transfers mixed in. But, the Trailblazers have been solid.
Tarleton might be the second team in the overachievers section after losing Shamir Bogues, Freddy Hicks, Shakur Daniel among others.
But, it is Utah Tech.
Underachiever goes to Abilene Christian. The Wildcats lost some key pieces in Damien Daniels and Tobias Cameron. But, Brette Tanner returned more than most teams in the WAC. But, the Wildcats have been a roller coaster of a ride in 2023-24 thus far. There was the road win at Oklahoma State to start the season. That was followed by losses at home to Prairie View and Northern Arizona.
And in WAC play, the Wildcats are just 1-4 overall. Not exactly a recipe for success, especially with a team of experienced players. Ali Dibba has been amazing, though. Just wanted to throw that in there.
Outside of GCU, Who, in the WAC in Your Eyes, Has Sweet 16 Potential?
Well, now, that is not a question I think about too often because very rarely, at least in this new age WAC, have we seen a WAC team win an NCAA Tournament game.
Yes, in 2022, New Mexico State got over the hump with its upset win over 5-seed UConn.
But, that was the only win in the NCAA Tournament by a WAC team since Nevada and Utah State were in the league…almost 20 years ago.
If this was 2023, I would have said Utah Valley or Sam Houston had they been able to get into the NCAA Tournament.
But, this season, I am not sure there is a team in the WAC, outside of GCU, who could make a run. Maybe Seattle U just because they have guards that can shoot. Maybe SFA because of its depth.
But, as we have seen, SFA got beat at Utah Tech this past week and Seattle U dropped two games on the road…sure, they were without Cam Tyson for the UT Arlington game on Saturday and the second half at UTRGV. But, still, it’s hard to imagine a team in the WAC getting to the Sweet 16 especially considering the matchups for anyone not named GCU won’t be favorable.
Does GCU Have a Weakness? 2nd Best Team in the WAC? UVU/Seattle U Struggle More?
Here is the answer to the first question: yes, the Lopes have a weakness and that is starting games way too slow.
Sure, we have seen the Lopes overcome double digit deficits in the first half at Utah Tech and then on Saturday at home against Tarleton. But, that weakness of getting off to a slow start can come back to bite you at some point. If the Lopes get to the NCAA Tournament, that could be a problem.
But, outside of that, the only other weakness is perhaps a lack of depth. The bench hasn’t been overly productive, yet, this season. So, keep an eye on that.
Second Best Team in the WAC
Woof…this is hard to answer. People say SFA. Well, the Lumberjacks have a home loss to Tarleton plus a loss at Utah Tech. People say Seattle U but the Redhawks just lost back-to-back games at UTRGV and UT Arlington.
Nobody has separated themselves as the second best team in the WAC. Tarleton was in that spot but blowout losses at California Baptist and GCU brought the Texans back to Earth.
CBU played better this week after three straight losses. Utah Tech is 3-2 in WAC play and just beat SFA. UTRGV got a pair of wins over two recent WAC regular season champions. UT Arlington looked solid in its wins over Utah Valley and Seattle U without Phillip Russell.
So, I can’t answer this question right now.
What I do know is that Southern Utah is highly unlikely to make it to WAC Vegas. That means that nine teams are vying for those final seven spots since GCU has pretty much clinched its spot in the WAC Tournament.
Will Power Rankings Change Much? Will Past Week Be the Norm?
Since the Power Rankings are a weekly thing, they will change when they come out on Wednesday. It’s hard to ignore a pair of blowout losses or a team that played some of its best basketball at home.
So, they will change quite a bit, to be honest.
As to your second question, the teams that can get road wins are the ones that are going to WAC Vegas. That is a fact. Home teams were 9-1 on the men’s side this past week. The lone loss was Southern Utah’s loss to SFA at the AFEC. But, even then, SUU had chances to win the game.
But, yes, I think this week will be the norm moving forward. It is hard to win on the road in this league. The road trips aren’t easy. And travel in the Winter to some of these places can eat at you. Changes in altitude can also effect things.
Simply put, teams just play better at home. Utah Valley is 6-1 at the UCCU Center. However, the Wolverines are 2-8 away from Orem. Seattle U is 9-2 at home and 1-5 away from the Redhawk Center.
See the pattern? We could look at everyone’s schedule and it would be eerily similar.
So, the team that gets a road win has a big opportunity to solidify its spot at WAC Vegas because road wins are going to be hard to come by.