MBB: Bracketology, WAC/CUSA Update, Early Season Storylines
MBB: Bracketology, WAC/CUSA Update, Early Season Storylines
With Christmas over, it is time to look at some bracketology, give an update on the WAC/CUSA scheduling initiative and more.
Merry Christmas, everyone!
Hopefully your day was merry and bright. The McDonald household had a nice quiet day. Koop got some toys and we added a basketball hoop to our backyard so now he can learn how to hoop like the greats in Bryce Drew, Todd Okeson, Dallas Cameron and others.
See what I did there? If these three don’t get a shoutout after reading this or if some trash isn’t talked after they see this, we might have some other issues to deal with.
Anyway, it is the second straight day without a college basketball game. Yeah, that is not cool. I guess we have to let the NBA and NFL have their days in the sun.
Wednesday picks up with a pair of games, one of which features a WAC school against a former WAC school. We will get to that in a bit.
But first, let’s get some housekeeping out of the way. Remember to use the promo code: WACHOOPSNATION to get $20 off your first order on SeatGeek.com or the Seat Geek app. If you want to go to an NBA, NFL, MLB, college basketball, or any type of event, this is a good way to get a discount on your tickets.
Second, be sure to subscribe to the WAC Hoops Nation Newsletter. Free subscriptions are available. But, if you are feeling merry and generous this holiday season, a paid subscription would be greatly appreciated. There are two options: $8 per month or $80 for a year. It is up to you. We are truly grateful for any support you show.
Now, onto the bigger pieces of the pie in this post-Christmas newsletter.
Bracketology Already Gracing Our Presence
With Christmas behind us, and conference play ramping back up in a little over a week, the bracketologists are out in full force.
As you can see from this bracket, Stadium has Grand Canyon as a 12-seed playing in Salt Lake City against 5-seed Gonzaga, a rematch of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
If we are being honest, a 12-seed might be a little low for the Lopes. It either says that Stadium isn’t paying attention or that…well, per usual, some media platforms have no respect for a WAC school.
In this tweet, T3 Bracketology has Grand Canyon as an 8-seed. That seems more realistic. GCU is 10-1 overall, has three Quad I wins and is predicted to win every game the rest of the season. If a 30-1 squad doesn’t get higher than a 12-seed like the first bracket shows, then something is seriously wrong with the system.
However, the problem for GCU is that outside of Saturday’s game against La Tech, the Lopes really don’t have many opportunities in WAC play for a quality win.
Maybe road games at SFA and at Seattle U. But, no other WAC teams are in the KenPom top-100 right now. And after GCU’s 41 NET ranking, Seattle U is the next closest at 121.
It will be interesting to see what GCU does the rest of the season. And bracketology will be interesting to watch as we get into January and February.
WAC/Conference USA Update
After Southern Utah’s 69-63 pre-Christmas win over Middle Tennessee on Friday, the WAC now holds a 9-5 edge in the matchup against Conference USA. There are four games left, all to be played on Saturday.
Abilene Christian at Western Kentucky
FIU at Utah Tech
California Baptist at New Mexico State
Seattle U at UTEP
One win by the WAC seals the challenge or scheduling initiative as the conferences are calling it. After road teams won four of the first five games in the challenge, home teams have won three straight.
Currently in the KenPom conference rankings, Conference USA sits at 13 and the WAC at 14, just .52 points behind.
Early Season Storylines
GCU Living Up to the Hype
Coming off an impressive run to a WAC Tournament title in 2023, GCU was the odds-on favorite to win the WAC heading into 2023-24. Ray Harrison returned. Jovan Blacksher was back from a knee injury. Gabe McGlothan was back as was Josh Baker.
Then, Bryce Drew and his staff added Tyon Grant-Foster, Collin Moore and Duke Brennan among others. And the Lopes haven’t disappointed. Outside of a loss to South Carolina, the Lopes have lived up to the billing. Wins over then-25th ranked San Diego State and at Liberty. A neutral site win over San Francisco, and blow out wins over the rest of the non-conference slate to this point. Add in two WAC wins where the Lopes showed they can grind out wins and play from behind.
Grant-Foster is proving to be a WAC Player of the Year candidate. And Ray Harrison hasn’t missed a beat for the Lopes. Something to keep an eye on is the depth. Four of GCU’s starters are playing close to 30-plus minutes per game. If it wasn’t for foul trouble, Duke Brenna would most likely be averaging 30-plus per game, as well.
Yes, it could be a special year on Camelback Road if the Lopes can continue to live up to the billing.
Too Many Home Losses
Remember, in the WAC Resume Seeding System, home losses are a killer. And the WAC, once again, has just had too many home losses in 2023-24.
ACU and Seattle U both lost at home to Northern Arizona. ACU also lost at home to Prairie View A&M. Utah Tech lost at home to Idaho and North Dakota. CBU lost at home to Portland State, Utah Tech and Western Kentucky. Utah Valley has a home loss to Liberty. UTRGV lost at home to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. UT Arlington has a home loss to Texas State. Tarleton lost at home to Jacksonville State.
SFA lost at home to Tarleton and La Tech.
Don’t lose at home. Plain and simple. But, it appears it is much easier said than done.
GCU and then Who?
In 2022-23, Sam Houston and Utah Valley were the top dogs for the majority of the season. In 2021-22, it was SFA, Seattle U and New Mexico State.
In 2023-24, it appears it is GCU and then everyone else. Sure, Seattle U made noise with its win over La Tech and taking Washington to double overtime before falling late. And with Cam Tyson, the Redhawks have the possibility to do something special.
But, even with that notion, who comes after GCU in the WAC?
CBU has shown glimpses. Utah Valley has shown glimpses. SFA has shown glimpses. But each one of those teams has also shown how bad they can be when things aren’t going right.
Utah Tech? Well, Jon Judkins’ crew is 2-0 in WAC play. But, the Trailblazers have also suffered four straight losses since the win at CBU, including a the two most recent blowouts vs. North Dakota and at Colorado.
Southern Utah? Rob Jeter’s team is 4-8 overall but have lost three games in the final moments or on a buzzer beater.
ACU? They looked good against UTEP and at Arkansas. But home losses to NAU and Prairie View make you wonder.
SFA? Knocked off Drake in blowout fashion and beat New Mexico State but in between those two wins….well, we won’t talk about how bad the Jacks were in that span.
UT Arlington? They had a nice win over Air Force in Phillip Russell’s first game. But, two straight losses, one of which was a 26-point loss at North Texas, makes one wonder what could be with the Mavs.
Tarleton is back to Earth after back-to-back losses at home to Jacksonville State and at No. 8 Tennessee.
And we aren’t quite sure what to make of UTRGV at this time.
However, with all this being said, that is why we play the game. The race for a bye to the WAC semifinals at WAC Vegas will be interesting to watch play out.